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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.