Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
