Recently released papers show that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to remove the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".
Government Documents Show Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader
Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.
Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.
Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working
Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.
Courses considered in the documents were:
- "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
- "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
- "Re-engage", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."
The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".
Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers
It cautioned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.
"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we judge that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."
The document adds: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."
Playing the Longer Game Advocated
The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.
Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."
The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".
Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.
